The measurements
Every row below is one measurement on the record. Each one has a prediction (written before the code ran), a condition that would prove the prediction wrong, and a result (computed after the code ran).
Click the open source link on the right to read the actual file on GitHub. Each file contains the prediction, the test that would have proved it wrong, the code, and the result.
| Measurement | Phase | Kind | Result | Verify on GitHub |
|---|---|---|---|---|
bound_defender_1_allocator_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
bound_defender_10_no_investment_advice_v1 | Phase 2 | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
bound_defender_11_no_eirmath_in_phase_2_v1 | Phase 2 | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
bound_defender_13_no_coltrane_silent_commingling_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
bound_defender_2_adapter_stubs_source_inspection_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
bound_defender_3_coupling_coefficient_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
bound_defender_4_cascade_not_prediction_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
bound_defender_4_no_forecast_language_v1 | Phase A | unknown | unknown | open source → |
bound_defender_6_funding_gap_proxy_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
bound_defender_8_eirmath_not_required_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
california_2000_2001_recognition_criterion_v1 | Phase 2 | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
california_2000_2001_recognition_v1 | Phase 2 | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
capability_by_apoha_set_meta_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Partial | open source → |
capacity_scaling_monotonicity_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
capacity_utilization_load_coupling_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Fail | open source → |
country_apoha_suitability_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
country_blocker_diagnostics_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
cross_lane_chain_loop_greece_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
cross_lane_chain_loop_ireland_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
demand_response_polyphony_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
denmark_germany_renewable_export_coupling_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Fail | open source → |
eu_may_2022_repowereu_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Pass | open source → |
evasion_spring_classifier_meta_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
finer_fingerprint_resolves_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
flow_allocator_is_not_power_flow_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
follower_country_prediction_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
follower_country_prediction_v2 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
germany_2022_cross_lane_lead_time_recognition_v1 | Phase 2 | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
germany_2022_recognition_criterion_v1 | Phase 2 | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
germany_neighbor_renewable_coupling_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Fail | open source → |
global_follower_prediction_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
japan_march_2011_fukushima_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Pass | open source → |
japan_post_fukushima_acceleration_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
lead_time_prior_crisis_robustness_defender_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
leader_cohort_loo_cv_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
low_failure_rate_alarm_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Partial | open source → |
mix_axis_smoothness_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
network_amplification_adoption_cascade_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Fail | open source → |
network_amplification_coupling_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Fail | open source → |
noise_robustness_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
receiver_geometry_substrate_class_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
receiver_shape_distinguishability_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
region_transfer_failure_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Pass | open source → |
regulatory_grid_coupling_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Fail | open source → |
regulatory_lead_time_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
regulatory_lead_time_v2_expanded_cohort | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
regulatory_shape_apoha_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Fail | open source → |
renewable_mix_threshold_polyphony_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
smooth_receiver_coupling_alarm_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
smooth_s_curve_emergent_bound_fresh_pairs_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
spain_morocco_renewable_export_coupling_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Pass | open source → |
station_set_dependence_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
texas_feb_2021_recognition_criterion_v1 | Phase 2 | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
texas_feb_2021_recognition_v1 | Phase 2 | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
texas_feb_2021_uri_v1 | Phase A | cross-substrate | Pass | open source → |
texas_uri_temperature_collapse_real_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
threshold_cascade_v1 | Phase A | single-substrate | Fail | open source → |
threshold_cascade_v2 | Phase A | single-substrate | Pass | open source → |
58 measurements on the project's main branch. The table above is regenerated from the source files on every change. Click any "open source" link to read the measurement's code, its prediction, and its result on GitHub.
How to read this table
- Pass means the prediction held up against the test that would have proved it wrong.
- Fail means the prediction did not hold. The measurement is still on the record — a project that hides its failures is not a useful project.
- Phase A measurements run on the toy power grid in the repository.
- Phase 2 measurements run on a follow-on substrate about electricity markets — what happens when grid management is well enough run that excess electricity starts behaving like a unit of account.
About six out of ten predictions in this project failed. That is by design. A project where every prediction passes is a project where someone is moving their predictions after seeing the answers.